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What the mainstream media isn't telling us about the latest job loss #'s

The latest Canadian job numbers came out last week. The news certainly wasn't good, but upon further review something interesting jumped out at me. Popular media has been all over job losses in Canada as of late, and you have probably heard these stats many times in the news over the last couple of days:

- Employment fell by (-0.8%), almost all in full time, pushing the unemployment rate up 0.6 percentage points to 7.2%.
- This drop in employment exceeds any monthly decline during the previous economic downturns of the 1980s and 1990s.
- since October 2008, employment has fallen by (-1.2%). Core-age adults (25-54) have experienced the largest decline in employment, with men accounting for nearly two-thirds of the decline

Here's what jumped out at me as interesting:

- Compared with a year earlier, the average hourly wages of employees was up 4.8% in January of 2009. The most recent increase in the Consumer Price Index was 1.2%.

I am by no means an Economist, but can this be right? The average worker is making roughly 3.6% more in '09 than they did in '08, factoring out inflation? There is no debating that less people are working these days, but those who are working are making considerably more than they did last year. I know quite a few people who would be over the moon with the prospect of a near 5% raise!

Maybe things aren't as bad for everyone as the media would have us believe?

Source - Labour Force Survey

the media is right this time...

Two things that are contributing to the confusion;

1. 2009 increases are for the most part just now being processed; thus the 3.6% is most likely the increase from 2007 to 2008 (where a 3.6% increase was pretty average). Most companies do their reviews, manage comp and establish in-year objectives in the first 60 days of the calendar year. There is no way this is reflected in the LFS. I suspect that the average increase reported this time next year; which is really the '09 salary reviews will read much different.

2. Base increases are almost insignificant these days. A lot of companies have moved to rewarding performance almost solely through their variable compensation strategy; or pay-for-performance. I haven't spoke to a single person who is excited about their bonus this year; in fact, many simply didn't get one period. Many companies started the process with a maximum payout factor of just 0.5 (versus a 1.0 which is what we typically sell to candidates).

Common topic at dinner parties and social getherings is just how much less bonuses are this year than last... that's the real indicator (IMO).

The labour Force Survey is much like a comp survey; there are some interesting tidbits of info; it is somewhat helpful at a macro level; but almost useless as an indicator of today (versus 12 months ago). Just the amount of time it takes to capture the data renders the content interesting at best.

-- Shawn

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